Growth plan for Dermalogica, 6 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
The Pro Picks Set carries 6223 reviews at 4.8. This plan turns that proof into a steady stream of tested creator ads and holds one number: target CAC of $16.32, with $24,000 of tests ramped over six weeks.
- Target CAC
- $16.32
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: $16.32 CAC on a $69.00 to $329.00 kit range
The one number is target CAC: $16.32, the guard line at 0.6 of a $27.20 ceiling. The ceiling uses a $34 average order, a guess that week one replaces with your real orders. Dermalogica kits from $69.00 to $329.00 may lift it.
Protect
Target CAC: $16.32 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $34 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $27.20. Guard line = 0.6 × $27.20 = $16.32. Across the ranges: $2.10 to $444.15.
Three moves
- Kill losing ads early, one variable per test, before they eat the $24,000 test budget.
- Keep the guard line at $16.32 and cut any ad set that runs above it after a full week of data.
- Report daily CAC, so a drift above the line shows up the same day, not at month end.
- reviews on the Pro Picks Set, rated 4.8
- 6223
- Published
- reviews on the Daily Microfoliant Duo, rated 4.8
- 4417
- Published
- order value for free shipping, no code needed
- $20+
- Published
02 Variety
Every ad must carry a kit saving, a review count or a routine
Each concept has to carry one reason to buy: the kit saving, the review proof, a routine, or a skin concern. A $69.00 Daily Microfoliant Duo ad and a $329.00 Ultimate Expertise Set ad should never say the same thing. One variable changes per test, so a loser tells us which reason failed.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Professional-grade skin care | Professional-grade skin care starts with the essentials: exfoliation and daily defense. | 5 |
| Best-selling powder exfoliant | #1 selling powder exfoliant | 4 |
| 4417 reviews on the Duo | Overall rating: 4.8068824 / 5 from 4417 reviews. | 3 |
| Free shipping on orders $20+ | free shipping on orders $20+. no code needed. see details | 2 |
| Clinical study results | Results after 30 minutes. Based on a consumer perception evaluation within a clinical study, 33 subjects | 2 |
| Free gifts + free shipping | away from 2 free gifts + free shipping | 1 |
| New: Smart Eye Density | NEW smart eye density | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, from kit-led offers to clinical claims
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creator scripts drift beyond the brand's own clinical-study wording | High | High | Both | Every ad line matches the claims sheet; one off-sheet line pauses that ad the same day. |
| Free gifts and samples at $0.00 inflate order counts and hide the real CAC | Med | High | Your team | Orders are tagged by type before spend; reports split kit, gift and sample orders. |
| Free shipping from $20+ is no hook, so kit ads lean on a $69.00 entry price | Med | Med | Me | The kit-saving hook beats the free-shipping hook within the first two tests, or it is dropped. |
| Creators post routines without a kit, so ads sell single products, not kits | Med | Med | Me | At least half of each week's creator videos show a kit; below that, I rebrief the creators. |
| Event tracking is incomplete when spend starts, so CAC cannot be read | High | High | Your team | No spend until purchase events fire and match your order count on a test order. |
| Early CAC runs above the $16.32 guard line while winning ads are still unfound | High | Med | Me | Ad sets above $16.32 after a full week of data are cut; no budget raise until one holds. |
| Creator supply slips behind the two-a-week roster | Med | Med | Both | If fewer than two new creators go live in a week, new ad launches pause that week. |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The ceiling is $27.20, and the guard line sits at $16.32
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $34 (range $4.00–$329.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $27.20 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $16.32 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $34 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $27.20. Guard line = 0.6 × $27.20 = $16.32. Across the ranges: $2.10 to $444.15.
Range across the assumptions: $2 to $444.
The $27.20 ceiling multiplies a $34 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order. The $34, the margin and the repeat order are guesses. Week one replaces them with your real numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests cost $24,000 before any scaling
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $16 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $16 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $16 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $16 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $16 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $16 |
Week 1 and week 2: 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Week 3 and week 4: 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week. Week 5 and week 6: 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000 of tests, Proposed. Losers die early, so spend follows ads that hold the $16.32 guard line.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More concepts, more winners: 20 to 80 concepts a month
More concepts mean more chances at a winner. At 20 concepts we guess 2 winners, adding $18,000 a month; at 80 concepts, 8 winners and $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are guesses, not facts.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
Of $100,000, the largest share funds winners, not tests
- Scaling winners that hold the $16.32 guard line
- $46,000
- 46%
- Creative tests on the six-week ramp
- $24,000
- 24%
- Creator pay and bonuses for kit videos
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages and event tracking
- $10,000
- 10%
The percentages split the $100,000 budget (Proposed); test spend follows the ramp in the table, so it is fixed first and winners get what is left.
The math. 46% × $100,000 = $46,000; 24% × $100,000 = $24,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first, because kits at $69.00 and up need a story
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta (Instagram + Facebook) | Day one, with the first creator ads | Kits at $69.00 and up need a story, and creator video tells it. |
| TikTok | A Meta ad holds the $16.32 guard line | Exfoliating and cleansing routines suit short vertical video. |
| YouTube Shorts | TikTok creators have proven out | Same vertical videos, extra reach, no new filming cost. |
| Branded search | Meta orders are enough to read branded search | Kit names such as the Pro Picks Set are what buyers can search. |
| Email and subscription | Repeat orders are tracked and tagged | Recurring orders come with free shipping, double rewards points and a bonus gift. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: a $15 CAC pays back, a $30 CAC stops us
Payback is the real constraint. At CAC $10 the first order pays back, with $17.20 left. At CAC $15, repeat orders pay it back, $12.20 left. At CAC $30 and CAC $40 we stop: −$2.80 and −$12.80 left. Gifts and samples at $0.00 never count as orders.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $13.60, $27.20.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | $13.60 | $27.20 | $17.20 | First order |
| $15 | $13.60 | $27.20 | $12.20 | After repeat orders |
| $30 | $13.60 | $27.20 | −$2.80 | Never: stop |
| $40 | $13.60 | $27.20 | −$12.80 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $10: $27.20 − $10 = $17.20 left; pays back: First order; CAC $15: $27.20 − $15 = $12.20 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $30: $27.20 − $30 = −$2.80 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $40: $27.20 − $40 = −$12.80 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: ads, creators and reporting; not your product or claims
Covers
- Meta creative testing and creator briefs for the kit range
- Creator sourcing, seeding and weekly video volume
- Landing pages for kits such as the Pro Picks Set
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team builds it
- Product, pricing and kit bundling decisions
- Clinical claims review: only the brand's own wording is used
- Retail, salon and professional-channel sales
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tracking matches your order count and at least two creators are live with videos in review. | Tracking is off, or no creator is live. |
| Day 30 | Six creators are live and at least one ad holds CAC at or under $16.32. | No ad holds CAC under $27.20 after four weeks of tests. |
| Day 60 | Ten creators are live and blended CAC sits under $27.20 while spend rises. | Blended CAC stays above $27.20 for two weeks running. |
| Day 90 | CAC holds at $16.32 or better as spend scales, and cohort payback shows repeat orders. | CAC is above $27.20 and repeat orders do not pay it back. |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Study wording on pages: 33 subjects, 2 applications/day | One sheet listing each approved line | 1st |
| reporting | Gifts and samples priced $0.00 beside kit orders | Order tagging and a daily CAC view | 1st |
| creative | Daily Microfoliant Duo at $69.00, down from $88.50 | No hook library yet for the kit saving | Week 1 |
| creators | Pro Picks Set: 4.8 from 6223 reviews, ready to film | A roster of two new creators a week | 2nd |
| landing pages | Kits from $69.00 to $329.00 on the site | One page per kit saving, built for ad traffic | 2nd |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 6223 reviews on the Pro Picks Set, rated 4.8 | https://www.dermalogica.com/products/the-pro-picks-set | Fact |
| 4417 reviews on the Daily Microfoliant Duo, rated 4.8 | https://www.dermalogica.com/products/daily-microfoliant-duo | Fact |
| $20+ order value for free shipping, no code needed | https://www.dermalogica.com/pages/rewards | Fact |
| Product prices $4.00–$329.00 | product prices in the site product data (90 products), read 2026-10-06 | Fact |
| $34 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $16.32 target CAC | 0.6 of the $27.20 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $27.20 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 46% / 24% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: your team and I agree the order events, I draft the claims sheet from the study wording on your product pages, and we brief the first 12 ads on the Daily Microfoliant Duo and the Pro Picks Set. No spend starts before tracking matches your orders.